COMMENTARY: Dr. John Eibner, CSI’s president, argues that an understanding between Russia and the United States on regional security could pave the way for a solid peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. President Trump should seize the opportunity.
As the dust settles from the Munich Security Conference, NATO’s European leaders are no longer marching in “lockstep” with Washington. Donald Trump’s blitz-peace initiative with Russia was one blow. Then came J.D. Vance’s Trump-approved reprimand of NATO member states for their Soviet-style anti-democratic tendencies and their spiritual poverty. Many of the continent’s luminaries have been left nonplused. The pretense of marching in “lockstep” can no longer be maintained.
The visible confusion of NATO’s political leaders is reminiscent of the disorientation that embarrassed the Warsaw Pact’s political elite in the late 1980s. They had long marched in “lockstep” with Moscow. But suddenly, a new, unpredictable dictator was in town. Gorbachev launched, over their heads, his radical Perestroika domestic reform program and an initiative to create a new security architecture for Europe, in partnership with Washington. Trump is now attempting an enterprise no less grand, and no less unsettling.
The implications of this sudden Trump-directed thaw in U.S.-Russian relations are profound, as Gorbachev’s initiatives were nearly four decades ago. Its ultimate consequences cannot yet be divined. But it would be safe to bet that Europe, in its psychologically disoriented and economically challenged state, is in for a bumpy ride. Along the way, it can be expected that some prominent members of the “lock-stepping” old guard will be jettisoned into a political abyss.
All eyes are now focused on the possibility of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, and rightly so. The destruction inflicted on Ukraine’s people and its infrastructure has been immense. Only the most inhumane can wish for a perpetuation of this grisly war.
Overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, another destabilizing conflict on NATO’s eastern periphery merits serious attention from American, Russian and European leadership. It is the unresolved war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It still simmers in the South Caucasus, where the geopolitical and economic interests of the USA, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the EU intersect.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this conflict has inflicted enormous human suffering on Armenians and Azerbaijanis alike. It has also hindered the development of the trade upon which depends the economic development of a vast, mineral-rich region stretching from the European banks of the Black Sea to the western border of China.
The Azerbaijani-Armenian War erupted as the Soviet Union was in its death throes. The dispute revolved around the fate of Nagorno Karabakh – an autonomous region populated by Armenian Christians, inside the borders of the Turkic- and Muslim-majority Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. When Karabakh’s overwhelming Armenian Christian majority sought to exercise their right to self-determination, Azerbaijan responded with violence, setting off three decades of conflict.
In the most recent surge of violence, in September 2023, the Azerbaijani military drove the 120,000 Armenian Christians of Nagorno Karabakh out of their homes, following a nine-month blockade – the latest phase of the Armenian Genocide.
The defeated and desperate Republic of Armenia has been suing for peace in the hope of saving the last vestiges of its national sovereignty. Meanwhile Baku is pressing to reduce Armenia to the condition of a defeated Persian satrapy, dependent on Azerbaijan and its “big brother,” Erdogan’s Turkey.
Azerbaijan’s ultranationalistic dictatorship continues to occupy Armenian borderland territory. It furthermore claims rightful ownership of the whole of Armenia, calling it “West Azerbaijan,” demands changes to Armenia’s constitution, plus payment of war reparations, and stages show trials of Karabakhi Armenians held hostage in Baku. The only legal document undergirding the current cessation of hostilities is the broken and unenforced Tripartite Agreement of November 9, 2020, between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia.
Old-fashioned Great Power competition between Russia, Turkey, Washington and its EU adjunct has complicated efforts to achieve a sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The prospect of a Russo-American understanding on regional security could clear the way for a solid Azerbaijani-Armenian peace treaty. President Trump should seize the opportunity as he works to reshape Europe’s security system.
During the presidential campaign, Trump declared:
“Kamala Harris did NOTHING as 120,000 Armenian Christians were horrifically persecuted and forcibly displaced in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). When I am President, I will protect persecuted Christians. I will work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
Now is the time for the United States to make good on that pledge, together with cooperative European allies. The safe, dignified return of all those ethnically cleansed from Nagorno Karabakh, with full human rights guaranteed by both the United States and Russia, is the key to the fulfilment of the president’s pledge.
John Eibner
February 19, 2025
